Newmarket 1000 Guineas Day Horse Racing Tips: ITV Racing Tips for Sunday May 5
Matt Brocklebank has two selections for Qipco 1000 Guineas day at Newmarket on Sunday.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 155pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Sunday May 5
1pt win Cannon Rock in 3.00 Newmarket at 16/1 (bet365)
1pt e.w. Tamfana in 3.40 Newmarket at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Already advised:
International angles
A wide-open QIPCO 1000 Guineas Stakes headlines the Sunday action at Newmarket and most of last year’s top two-year-olds are rightly towards the head of the betting.
Fallen Angel’s Moyglare win was the standout performance among the 2023 crop, although Ylang Ylang’s subsequent Fillies’ Mile victory – where she had a notably green See The Fire in behind – wasn’t too far off that level and also proved her Curragh flop to be all wrong. In addition, it looks another statement of intent by Aidan O’Brien to head for this Classic with just the one runner.
Pretty Crystal and Dance Sequence surely both need to improve a good chunk on their Nell Gwyn form to come home in front this time but that’s perfectly possible, and the strength in the market for Charlie Appleby's supposed first-string seems quite significant.
Appleby's other runner Cinderella's Dream is the one with the unbeaten record and her latest victory out in Meydan – the same race Saeed bin Suroor’s Mawj won en route to Guineas glory last spring – has to be seen to be believed as William Buick lost both irons after the saddle slipped on the turn for home.
She's got to be respected but looks to have been well placed on her way to her first run at Group level.
Cinderella’s Dream isn’t the only one with international form worthy of consideration and this year’s running of the Prix Imprudence at Deauville leads me to a bet.
The winner Romantic Style goes for the French Guineas instead, but Christopher Head’s Ramatuelle ran a lovely prep in second there having ended her juvenile campaign with a narrow defeat at the hands of Vandeek in the Prix Morny.
Vandeek went on to win the Middle Park from Task Force so if Ramateulle sees out the mile she obviously has the requisite class to play a major part. That’s not certain, though, given the raw speed she’s always seemed to display, and close-up (and battling back) Imprudence third TAMFANA looks the stronger stayer of the pair.
David Menuisier’s filly looked a bit special when winning her maiden by nine and a half lengths over a mile at Kempton second time out last term (beaten narrowly into third over seven furlongs on debut) and confirmed the impression made that day when following up in a Group 3 at Chantilly in late-October.
Menuisier has entered her for the Oaks and is eyeing a possible crack at the Prix de Diane but she showed more than enough in her seven-furlong trial to merit a shot at Newmarket.
Interestingly, she’s reported to have endured a bit of a nightmare on travelling to France last month, getting held up for over four hours at Calais customs which left her trainer “fuming”, so the run may want marking up a little if anything, and I could certainly see her out-running her long odds under Jamie Spencer this weekend.
The William Hill Handicap is the valuable mile and three-quarter handicap, in which Bague d’Or must have solid claims if ready to roll on seasonal debut.
He showed improved form when upped to this distance in 2022 and, after joining James Ferguson last spring, put in two good efforts when reappearing in August and September, especially when second to Marhaba The Champ over a mile and a half at the Ebor meeting.
Bague d’Or should have more to offer as he’s from a family who improve with age, but unfortunately he’s been pretty well found in the market and at longer odds it could pay to give another chance to CANNON ROCK.
On the face of it, Cannon Rock was a fraction disappointing in the Rosebery Handicap at Kempton last month but it was quite a baptism of fire given it was his handicap debut and the race just wasn’t run to suit at all.
Dropping back a furlong in trip from his 12-furlong novice win at Southwell the previous month, the four-year-old wasn’t the best away and then raced keenly for Aidan Keeley and could never quite get into a position to challenge as the front two dictated throughout.
That was only his second run for trainer James Owen having been picked up cheaply (16,000 guineas) from Godolphin and he looks a very shrewd purchase on what we’ve seen so far as he hadn’t raced at all since winning a maiden at the back end of his two-year-old season.
That win came on the Rowley Mile (10 furlongs) which is obviously pretty encouraging and he could really relish the move up to this more demanding distance.
Published at 1500 BST on 04/05/24
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