Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: Matchday 36
Football betting tips: Premier League
Monday
2pts Crystal Palace 17+ total shots vs Man Utd (20:00) at 5/6 (Unibet)
1pt Crystal Palace 20+ total shots vs Man Utd (20:00) at 9/5 (Betfair, Paddys)
Already advised:
1pt Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score anytime in Luton vs Everton at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
2pts Justin Kluivert to commit 2+ fouls at 5/6 in Arsenal vs Bournemouth at 5/6 (Betfair, Paddys)
1.5pts Alex Scott to commit 2+ fouls at 13/10 in Arsenal vs Bournemouth at 13/10 (BetVictor)
2pts Over 3.0 Asian goals in Sheff Utd vs Nottingham Forest at 19/20 (bet365)
1pt Rayan Ait-Nouri 1+ total shot in Man City vs Wolves at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Ollie Watkins to score anytime in Brighton vs Aston Villa at 6/4 (General)
1pt Trent Alexander-Arnold 1+ assist in Liverpool vs Spurs at 5/2 (Boylesports)
Last weekend was a good one for this column, returning +2.4pts profit from the seven selections. Had Aston Villa remembered that a game of football is played for 90 minutes and not 45 against Chelsea, we would have made +6.8pts profit. Thanks Unai.
- Jake Osgathorpe is +61.9pts in profit for the 2023-24 football season
On a positive note Bournemouth fouls continue to be a profitable angle, this time with Alex Scott who made four fouls against Brighton when only two were required, while Everton stopper Jordan Pickford was again busy against Brentford and his 'saves made' stats could be worth exploring again.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 11/8 | Draw 11/4 | Away 17/10
Manchester United are playing football so that can only mean one thing: OPPOSITION SHOTS. Erik ten Hag's men have conceded the joint most shots per game in the entire league this season - tied with rock bottom Sheffield United who are the worst defensive team the league has ever seen.
We've profited from it already in this column and we look to have another very generous shot line here for CRYSTAL PALACE, with it 5/6 they take 17+ TOTAL SHOTS. This is a bet that would have landed in 10 of United's last 13 league games, and all of their last six away matches.
In that 13 game span United have allowed an average of 21.8 shots per game, while in their last six away games that average jumps to 25.2. Palace have been impressive of late under Oliver Glasner, especially since Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise have returned to fitness.
The Eagles have hit 18 and 20 shots in their last two home games against West Ham and Newcastle, with Glasner transforming Palace into a more attack-minded side. I'll also have a smaller play on PALACE 20+ TOTAL SHOTS too at 9/5 - United have conceded at least 20 shots in all of their last six away games and in nine of their last 13 in total.
- CLICK HERE to back Crystal Palace 17+ total shots with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Crystal Palace 20+ total shots with Sky Bet
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Super 6 predictions for round 53
- Burnley 1-1 Newcastle
- Brentford 2-1 Fulham
- Manchester City 3-1 Wolves
- Brighton 1-2 Aston Villa
- Chelsea 3-1 West Ham
- Liverpool 3-1 Tottenham
Luton vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 6/4 | Draw 5/2 | Away 13/8
Luton have won just one and lost 10 of their last 14 league games, yet are favourites for this match. That immediately looks wrong, with the market leaning too much into the 'they need to win' factor.
Everton are finishing the season with a flourish, and should get chances here against a desperate and vulnerable Luton side who have shipped 1.94 xGA per home game this season.
But instead of backing an Everton result, I'm going to take DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN TO SCORE ANYTIME, with the Englishman fit and raring to go after being rested last weekend.
Goals are like buses if your process is good, and that's been the case for Calvert-Lewin, who has scored three in his last four after going 23 without a goal despite averaging 0.52 xG per 90 this season.
He looked a threat in behind during the Merseyside derby and you'd expect he'll get space to operate in here with Luton pushing, while the striker poses a real threat in the air and from set-pieces, an area the Toffees should have joy from on Friday. Let's hope the buses keep coming.
Score prediction: Luton 1-3 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Arsenal vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 1/5 | Draw 6/1 | Away 11/1
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. ALEX SCOTT landed us a nice 13/10 winner last weekend when committing four fouls when we only needed him to make two, and we can get the same price again for him TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS this weekend.
As discussed in last week's column, the Cherries are foul kings, with their high-pressing style seeing them become the league's most cynical side. They won't change their approach for any opponent either, this is their new identity.
Scott, who I expected to play number 10 again last week, actually played in a deeper role yet still got heavily involved with the fouls. He has averaged 1.78 fouls per 90 this term, so against an Arsenal side who will dominate the ball, he will get plenty of opportunities to get stuck in.
I'm also going to get greedy and take JUSTIN KLUIVERT TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at 5/6. This price looks huge too, with Kluivert averaging 2.57 fouls per 90, making him the third dirtiest player in the entire division. This bet, which was 4/11 last weekend, has landed in six of his last seven outings and eight of his last 12.
- CLICK HERE to back Alex Scott to commit 2+ fouls with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Justin Kluivert to commit 2+ fouls with Sky Bet
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Burnley vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 12/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away evs
Burnley are all of a sudden right in the mix for survival. It looked a tall order not long ago, but one defeat in eight league games has drawn them to within two points of Nottingham Forest.
Across that period the Clarets have accumulated the 12th most expected points (xP), with their underlying process far more competitive than earlier in the season (1.66 xGF, 1.90 xGA per game).
Eddie Howe's Newcastle are poor travelers, losing 10 of 16 away games, and that's the main reason they aren't in the hunt for Champions League football.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Brentford vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 21/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 9/4
Brentford and Fulham have nothing to play for other than pride, and marginally more prize money. That should lead to an entertaining game in the capital, and there is a bit of needle between these two sides whenever they play.
Graham Scott looks a good appointment for cards, averaging 4.4 per game, so while I won't be having an official play on this game, both teams to score and both teams to be carded (around 21/20) could be a live runner.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Sheffield United vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/1 | Draw 16/5 | Away 8/13
This is a huge game and a huge opportunity for Nottingham Forest. They are nervously looking over their shoulders after a run of one win in 10, but performances have been better than those results suggest.
Believe it or not, Forest have picked up the fifth most expected points (xP) since Nuno Espirito Santo arrived. So, if they carry on playing in the same manner, results will come, likely starting this weekend.
Sheffield United have been simply shocking this season, breaking the Premier League record for goals conceded and just three shy of the 100 mark. That could be hit this weekend.
Goals have been a guarantee when the Blades take to the field, with their last 20 matches averaging an eye-watering 4.4 goals.
They have a go and create plenty, and with the stakes high for Forest here, backing OVER 3.0 GOALS on the ASIAN LINE makes great appeal. For this bet to win we need four goals, while three goals exactly gives us a push. This bet would have won in 16 of Sheffield United's last 20 matches.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1-3 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Manchester City vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/12 | Draw 19/2 | Away 22/1
Wolves are a huge price to cause an upset here. They are as big as 29/1 in places to win at the Etihad, and while I don't expect it to happen, that price seems large. City should prove too strong, but Wolves will create a couple of chances, after all, Nottingham Forest caused serious issues for the title favourites last weekend.
As Alex Keble highlighted in his match-ups piece, Forest sat deep and countered using direct dribblers down both flanks. Wolves will do the same, and I'd expect RAYAN AIT-NOURI to be one of those players to spring the counters, and with him getting into advanced positions, his price to take 1+ TOTAL SHOT looks massive.
He has taken at least one shot in 10 of his last 13 starts for Wolves, with his shots per 90 rate in that time standing at a staggering 1.66. He's scored three times in that span too, so at 20/1 he looks a big price to find the net, but I'm happy with the 11/8 for him to just pull the trigger once.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
BuildABet @ 66/1
Man City to win
Matheus Cunha to score anytime
Rayan Ait Nouri 2+ shots
Brighton vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 17/10 | Draw 11/4 | Away 11/8
Brighton's demise has been quite something. Well, it shows how far they've come in a short space of time that falling out of European places and into the bottom half is a disappointment. Since 25th September, the Seagulls have accumulated the fifth fewest points (29 in 28 games) in the league, winning just six times.
Injuries have played a huge part in this, with Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March big misses for the bulk of the campaign, while defensively they have been shocking, allowing 49 goals in those 28 games (1.75 per game) and shipping 1.61 xGA per game.
Golden Boot-chasing OLLIE WATKINS could profit this weekend for top-four hopefuls Aston Villa, and his price TO SCORE ANYTIME looks large at 6/4. The Englishman is just two goals behind Erling Haaland having netted 19 in the league, with his 0.56 xG per 90 an incredibly solid rate.
Villa's disappointing defeat in the Europa Conference League in midweek, coupled with their overall patchy form, puts me off them to win the game at what looks a big price, but we should expect them to score a couple, and given Watkins is after the top scorer gong, he should start and play a large portion of the contest.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
BuildABet @ 17/2
Aston Villa to win
Ollie Watkins to score anytime
Carlos Baleba to commit 3+ fouls
Chelsea vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 17/10 | Draw 11/4 | Away 11/8
Chelsea were good against Tottenham in their 2-0 win, and that victory moved them within three points of sixth-placed Manchester United, meaning they are bang in the hunt for European football. That win over Spurs was the sixth straight home league game in which they have scored two or more, so West Ham should be worried.
David Moyes' side have won just one of their last eight league games, conceding multiple times in five of those, and their defence has looks extremely vulnerable this season when travelling. Only the current bottom three have conceded more xGA per game on their travels than the Hammers (2.35).
Score prediction: Chelsea 3-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Liverpool vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 4/9 | Draw 17/4 | Away 19/4
It looks like both of these sides' seasons have petered out. Liverpool won't win the title, while Spurs won't finish in the top four. The issues for both have been the same - defensive vulnerability. The Reds have conceded 13 and eight more xGA than Arsenal and City respectively, while Spurs have shipped the eighth most xGA in the entire division.
Chances and goals should be on the cards here then, and the bet that appealed most to me was TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD 1+ ASSIST at 5/2. Since returning from injury he is yet to register an assist but he has been knocking on the door, creating plenty of good chances which have been squandered by his teammates.
In his last four games he has racked up 0.57, 0.21, 0.41 and 0.43 expected assists (xA), with his per 90 average in that time an impressive 0.46. Spurs' left hand side looks very vulnerable too at the moment with Destiny Udogie out, and either Ben Davies or Emerson Royal filling in - Chelsea had plenty of joy down their right on Thursday.
Also as a boost for this bet, Trent shares set-piece duty with Andy Robertson, a big area of weakness for Spurs of late, and motivation should be high for Alexander-Arnold with the Euros approaching and a send off for the man who believed in him, gave him his debut and stood by him through criticism, Jurgen Klopp.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1330 BST (03/05/24)
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